After a long period of rising food prices, coffee is now showing a tangible decline. According to new forecasts, prices could continue to fall throughout the year.
According to a recent market analysis from Coop, coffee prices are expected to fall by an average of 8-10%. This corresponds to around SEK 14-15 per kilogram in stores, something that is already starting to be noticed in the trade, reports SVT.
- You can expect a lower price with around 14-15 SEK per kilo in the trade already now, says Rebecca Widegren, head of pricing at Coop Sweden.
The background is an expected record harvest in Brazil, the world's largest producer of coffee. As supplies increase, the price of the raw material is pushed down, which in turn affects consumer prices.
From boom to bust
In recent years, coffee prices have risen sharply. There have been several reasons for this: extreme drought in Brazil, floods in Vietnam, high inflation and turmoil in financial markets. Now the situation has changed. Commodity prices have fallen back and forecasts point to continued good supply.
- Given the availability of coffee and the fact that we do not fear any upcoming storms or major changes in weather conditions, we can expect declines in the commodity, says Widegren.
Several factors determine the final price
At the same time, it is not only the price of raw materials that determines what consumers pay. Transportation costs, exchange rates and energy prices also affect the final retail price.
- There are other components that can affect the retail price. For example, freight costs, currency, logistics issues and higher energy prices, says Widegren.
May continue to fall during the year
If the forecasts come true, the price decline is expected to continue in the autumn, with the full effect not being felt until the beginning of 2027. For consumers, the development represents a clear change compared with previous years.
At the same time, the price picture shows how global factors can quickly impact the everyday economy and how changes in production and supply have a direct effect in stores.
